Another Decline in Nonresidential Construction Forecasted for 2010
Despite signs that the overall U.S. economy is beginning to improve, nonresidential construction spending is expected to decrease by 13.4 percent in 2010 with a marginal increase of 1.8 percent in 2011 in inflation-adjusted terms, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
Despite signs that the overall U.S. economy is beginning to improve, nonresidential construction spending is expected to decrease by 13.4 percent in 2010 with a marginal increase of 1.8 percent in 2011 in inflation-adjusted terms, according to the American Institute of Architects (AIA).
The semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey by AIA of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projected that commercial and industrial projects will continue to see the most significant decrease in activity. Institutional building categories are projected to fare better over this period thanks in part to federal stimulus spending.
“When economies emerge from this prolonged recession, recovery for nonresidential construction activity typically takes longer,” says AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker. “Hardest hit will be the commercial and industrial sectors with projected declines in the 20 percent range for 2010 in most building categories. Led by the health care market, the institutional sector will see far less dramatic declines and should help lead the construction industry into recovery in 2011.”
Other market segment consensus growth forecasts:
Overall nonresidential 2010: -13.4% 2011: 1.8%
Commercial/Industrial
Industrial 2010: -24.3% 2011: -7.8%
Hotels 2010: -23.5% 2011: 5.4%
Office Buildings 2010: -18.6% 2011: 11.8%
Retail 2010: -17.2% 2011: 3.2%
Institutional
Recreation 2010: -12.9% 2011: 4.4%
Religious 2010: -5.8% 2011: 2.0%
Education 2010: -5.6% 2011: 6.0%
Health Care 2010: -0.3% 2011: 2.5%
Public Safety 2010: 0.8% 2011: -0.1%
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